Oregon Revenue Forecast Improves, But Lawmakers Clash Over Impact of Trump’s Budget and Tax Policies
After Oregon’s Department of Administrative Services (DAS) released Q1 March’s Economic Outlook and Revenue Forecast on Wednesday, showing an improved outlook, politicians across the aisle pointed fingers.
Oregon Revenue Forecast Shows Better Economic Outlook
The report presented by the DAS Office of Economic Analysis to the legislative committee on finance and revenue shows stronger economic growth and reduced recession risks. The forecasts, which serve as the basis for much of the Oregon state government budgeting, open the revenue forecasting process to the public.
The March (Q1) economic outlook, compiled after government data releases returned to their regular schedule following the federal government shutdown last fall, shows improvement.
Corporate Income Tax liability updated over the last three months is stronger than expected, while Personal Income Tax liability is modestly lower than previously estimated. Improved and resources carried over from the prior biennium contributed to the net change in the projected General Fund balance.
| Forecast line | Dec 2025 | Mar 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income Tax | 30,009.7 | 29,966.7 | -43.0 |
| Corporate Income Tax | 3,330.7 | 3,442.2 | +111.5 |
| All Other Revenues | 2,100.5 | 2,152.9 | +52.4 |
| Gross General Fund revenues | 35,441.0 | 35,561.8 | +120.9 |
| Beginning balance | 2,018.7 | 2,165.8 | +147.1 |
| Appropriations | 37,323.1 | 37,314.8 | -8.3 |
| Projected ending balance | -63.1 | 197.9 | +261.1 |
The stronger growth outlook, supported by monetary and fiscal stimulus, is expected to reduce recession risks further and create favorable labor market conditions. But both state and national economic resilience remain a key focus.
Reactions To Oregon’s New Economic Forecast
Oregon Governor Tina Kotek reflected on the effect of HR1- Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill,’ which took $888 million from Oregon’s budget.
Source: Oregon DAS Office of Economic Analysis / Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast (March 2026) plus LRO estimates (Aug 27, 2025)
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The projected general fund ending balance for 2025-27 was revised from a positive $473 million to a negative $373 million, mainly due to HR 1. She noted that working families are falling further behind because of the federal government’s reckless trade choices and broken promises to control prices.
In response to the first-quarter revenue forecast, Governor Kotek said that despite Trump’s economic policies exacerbating inflation pressures and cost-of-living challenges for Oregonians, the state’s economy continues to show signs of resilience.
Representative Julie Fahey noted that the forecast indicates that Oregon’s economy is strong and the worries of a recession have subsided. She said, “A healthy economy means we can continue delivering for working families and maintain critical investments in priorities like housing, addiction treatment, and public safety.”
Conversely, Oregon House Republicans said that the state is one of the highest-taxed in the nation and failed to see that this produced results.
The lawmakers contend that the $888 million reduction from the federal government would still be in the state and said it would “still be in my pocket and your pocket and our pockets to the tune of over $3,000 per Oregonian, that they get to keep versus going to the government.”
Democratic Senate Majority Leader Kayse Jama (D – East Portland, Damascus, Boring) said Trump’s attacks on working families are playing out in real time, with slowed wage growth coming up against rising prices for food and utilities as spite-driven tariffs that remain the highest they’ve been in decades do extra harm to trade-heavy economies like Oregon’s.