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Lawmakers warn that unrestricted betting on wildfires, already ravaging large areas of Oregon and other parts of the country, could be the catalyst for acts of arson.
Oregon Senator Calls on the CFTC to Crack Down on Wildfire Betting
Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley had led a group of eight other senators in an appeal to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on wildfire betting.
Their action follows recent reports highlighting public safety and insider trading concerns related to prediction market platforms. One of these was by prediction platform Polymarket that accepted over $1 million in bets on the 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires, which claimed the lives of 31 people and destroyed thousands of properties.
Tidings Data Snapshot
Prediction Market Growth Under CFTC ReviewSource: Commodity Futures Trading Commission prediction market rulemakingDailyTidings.com
In a letter addressed to CFTC chair Michael Selig, the lawmakers state that ‘there’s a heightened risk that individuals could be tempted to commit arson to make sure their bets are successful.’
The Lawmakers Want Common-Sense Guardrails Put Into Place
As wildfires threaten communities nationwide, the senators are pressing the CFTC to take swift action to curtail unrestricted betting. They have also called for ‘common-sense guardrails’ to prevent punters from profiting while communities suffer.
Merkley has long sounded the alarm over the dangers that prediction markets pose to democracy. He has previously urged the CFTC to tackle insider trading and betting on elections, war, government and military actions, and sports.
Senator Merkley authored the STOP Corrupt Bets Act, which seeks to ban prediction market betting on issues deemed contrary to the public interest or lacking economic value.
He also introduced the End Prediction Market Corruption Act, aimed at preventing the President, Vice President, Members of Congress, and other public officials from trading event contracts—reducing the risk of insider trading and conflicts of interest.
The senators have given the CFTC until August 14 to respond to their letter.
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