Kotek’s Multnomah County Stronghold Has Oregon’s Lowest Early Ballot-Return Rate

MULTNOMAH COUNTY, Ore. — Multnomah County recorded the lowest ballot-return rate of Oregon’s 36 counties by late Wednesday afternoon, according to the Oregon Secretary of State’s ballot-return report.

By Tuesday morning, October 27, Oregon had recorded 730,011 ballot returns, compared with 590,526 received eight days before the 2022 general election, an increase of 23.6%. The reports used slightly different cutoffs.

Multnomah Has Returned Fewer Than 24% of Its Ballots

Of 591,269 registered voters in Multnomah County, 141,445 ballots, or 23.92%, had been received. This was about seven percentage points below the statewide return rate.

Oregon has 3,117,439 active voters. By 4:31 p.m. on October 28, it had received 963,640 ballots, a return rate of 30.91%.

The two counties with the highest return rates were Wheeler (47.00%) and Wallowa (46.55%). Curry’s rate was 41.07%, and Jackson’s was 35.67%.

Why Multnomah Matters in the Kotek-Drazan Rematch

Tina Kotek and Republican rival Christine Drazan are embroiled in a bitter fight for the governorship, a rematch of the 2022 election in which Kotek emerged victorious.

In 2022, Kotek received 265,805 votes, or 72.62% of valid governor votes in Multnomah County, compared to Drazan’s 72,158 votes, or 19.71%.

With nearly 600,000 registered voters, a good turnout from Multnomah could tip the scales for either candidate.

According to MultiState’s October 26 update, there is no RealClearPolling average between the two. A DHM Research poll conducted from September 24 to October 1 put Kotek ahead 46% to 44%.

The two-point gap was within the poll’s 4.2-percentage-point margin of error.

MultiState’s update listed Kotek’s market-implied chances at about 83% on Polymarket and 80% on Kalshi. Those figures are probabilities, not vote shares.

Kotek and Drazan Are Scrambling for Coalition Support

In a recent Oregon Capital Chronicle article, Shaanth Nanguneri writes that both the governor and state Sen. Drazan (R-Canby) are fighting for votes in Multnomah County.

Nanguneri says the gubernatorial campaign has pushed both candidates “to appeal to the opposite side of their ideological lanes.”

He says the two opponents are trying to build bigger coalitions to pave their way to victory in a campaign that relies heavily on votes in the Portland metropolitan area, Oregon’s most populous metro region.

Winning this election will be historically important to Kotek. If she succeeds on November 3, January 2027 will mark 40 years of Democratic rule in the Governor’s Office.