Drazan Campaign Poll Shows Narrow Lead Over Kotek in Oregon Governor Race
Ahead of this year’s Oregon gubernatorial election on 3 November 2026, early polls are suggesting that it will be a tight race between incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazan. A new poll puts Drazan slightly ahead at the moment.
Polling Suggests A Hotly Contested Oregon Gubernatorial Election in 2026
In Oregon, Democrats have sat in the Governor’s office since 1982, but a new poll commissioned by Drazan’s campaign suggests this may change come November 3.
Source: Oregon Secretary of State 2022 election results
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The poll showed Drazan leading the race, almost four months before the elections, at 48% to Kotek’s 44%. But these numbers fall within the poll’s four-point margin of error, and it’s still early days.
Oregon’s 2026 Governor Election is shaping up to be a competitive race. While Drazan’s social media posts are framed as an advantage, the Public Opinion Strategies poll comes from an established national research firm with a right-leaning political clientele.
The poll, conducted between June 22 and 24, surveyed 600 voters in Oregon and has a stated margin of error of plus or minus 4%. In the poll, 57% of respondents said they disapproved of Kotek’s job performance, while 38% approved, putting her at -19.
Campaign commissioned poll conducted June 22 to 24
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In addition, 59% felt the state is on the wrong track, and 66% of Oregon voters said they believe change is necessary.
The polls show:
- In Portland, usually a safe blue city, Kotek shows at 46%, closely followed by Drazan at 45%.
- In Eugene, Drazan leads with 49% to Kotek’s 45%
- Medford: Kotek’s 29% pales in comparison with Drazan’s 56%
Despite the suggested Republican lead, the same firm tracks an across-the-board advantage for Democrats in a midterm election responsive to President Donald Trump’s performance. Rising costs and the ongoing war with Iran look likely to be decisive issues.
In a different poll, the Cook Political Report, the Oregon gubernatorial race outcomes moved from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat, showing an 8-point advantage for Democrats on the Cook Partisan Voting Index for Oregon.