U.S. Economy Posts Biggest Gain in Two Years, and Oregon’s Export Sector Stands to Benefit

The US gross domestic product- the historical measure of the economy- grew by 4.3% in the third quarter of 2024, driven by consumers, who continue to spend despite inflation, and exports. As a net goods exporter, Oregon is in good shape.

Strong Q3 GDP Growth Reported Amid Mixed Economic Signals

The US economy grew at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter after consumer spending rose to a 3.5% yearly pace. The growth is the most rapid expansion in two years.

US gross domestic product– the economy’s total output of goods and services- rose from its 3.8% growth rate in the April-June quarter to 4.3% in the July-September quarter despite economists’ predicted growth of just 3% for the period.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of US economic activity, rose to 3.5%, up from 2.5% in the April-June period.

Some economists say the growth spurt may be affected by the extended government shutdown and the growing number of Americans fatigued by high inflation.

Resilient US consumers drove the strongest economic expansion in 2 years, but a recent Conference Board survey showed that consumer confidence has slumped.

Two areas of growth, however, were:

• Spending on artificial intelligence, a consistent driver in the economy, grew 5.4% in the third quarter, following an even bigger jump of 15% in the second quarter.
• Exports grew at an 8.8% rate.

US Economic Growth Could Benefit Oregon

Since exports were a significant piece of last quarter’s growth, Oregon’s export-heavy economy is one of the places where that national trend can translate into real work and paychecks.

Good national numbers are probably good news for Oregon, as the state’s export-heavy sectors (timber, agriculture like hazelnuts/berries, and tech/semiconductors) benefit from national growth trends, potentially supporting jobs in rural areas and ports like Portland.

Oregon is the sixth-largest exporter in the US, in terms of export value as a share of state GDP, and has the sixth-highest export per capita rate in the US. Oregon’s position on the Pacific Ocean allows access to markets through various seaports and airports.

Combined with the significant impact on export value from the state’s strong, high-value semiconductor sector, exports play an essential role in Oregonians’ everyday lives.

But the Trump Administration’s tariff policies could still play a role. However, this has been mitigated to some extent by Oregon’s response to tariffs.

Incentives such as Business Oregon’s increased subsidies and trade promotion services available to Oregon companies have been designed to minimize the impact of tariffs.

The good news is that Oregon saw a large increase in exports in 2024 (+23%, about $6.3 billion), driven primarily by electronics and machinery – mostly related to the semiconductor industry. Electrical products and machinery accounted for 50% of all exports over the last 3 years.

Here is what Oregon exports most, by category.