Portland State Study Finds COVID and Fentanyl, Not Measure 110, Drove Oregon’s Spike in Drug Deaths

A recently released report by Portland State University (PSU) researchers into the effect of Measure 110 on Oregon’s spike in drug-related deaths reveals that the Covid-19 pandemic- specifically the increased use of fentanyl, played a significant role.

Oregon Drug Deaths Spike Post-COVID-19

Oregon’s Measure 110 decriminalized possession of personal amounts of all controlled substances between February 2021 and August 2024 and increased funding for behavioral health services to pivot away from incarceration and criminal charges, and implement a ticket with referral to services when users have small amounts of drugs.

In the meantime, lawmakers have contemplated recriminalizing minor drug possession covered under Measure 110. While other studies had conflicting conclusions, the public perception was different:

A 2023 survey suggested voters thought the law was ineffective and that problems got worse after it passed in 2020.

In the report on PSU’s three-year study into the impacts of Measure 110 decriminalization, looking at how Oregon’s drug policies have impacted the state, led by Associate Professors Kelsey Henderson, Christopher Campbell, and Professor Brian Renauer, the researchers found little evidence that Measure 110 was to blame for rising crime or deadly overdoses.

Their analysis points to the COVID-19 pandemic and the widespread emergence of fentanyl as the primary drivers behind the spike in drug-related deaths.

While there were many claims that Measure 110 was responsible for rising crime and overdose deaths, the research showed that, while the rollout of Measure 110 had real problems, it was not responsible for the rise in crime and overdose deaths.

Trends varied somewhat by county; by 2023, drug arrests, charges, and crime rates were all either declining or stable at relatively low rates.

Drug-related deaths began climbing rapidly before Measure 110, and despite peaking in 2023, remained high going into 2024. The researchers pinpointed the COVID-19 pandemic and fentanyl as the causal link to drug overdose increases, rather than Measure 110.

The researchers said, “Rising crime rates and drug-related deaths that were attributed to post-COVID changes like Measure 110 were actually a return to pre-COVID levels.

The findings from the study also suggest that state and county officials can use the study as a possible baseline to gauge the implementation of deflection compared to defelonization.

The researchers say that success with deflection will not just depend on re-criminalization but on whether new treatment pathways are accessible, adequately resourced, and appropriately coordinated across agencies.