Add as preferred on Google
Despite outpacing the rest of the US since the Great Recession, Oregon’s income growth has slowed over the past two years, falling below the national average.
Oregon Income Growth Takes A Knock
During the pandemic, Oregon downshifted, and the effects are now evident in increased financial pressure and a decline in income growth.
Federal Reserve data reveal that, in 2024, Oregon’s median household income was nearly $90,000. But in 2023 and 2024, incomes nationally grew over three times faster than Oregon incomes.
| Metric | Latest figure | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon median household income | ~$89,700 in 2024 | High level, but recent growth has softened |
| General Fund forecast change | +$309.5M for 2025-27 | Revenue outlook still positive despite slowdown |
| Corporate Income Tax change | +$266.9M | Most of the forecast bump is business-tax driven |
| Personal Income Tax change | +$48.0M | Household income growth remains a concern |
Over the same two years, Oregon’s growth rate was below inflation, reducing households’ buying power. In a December report, the OEA noted that Oregon has underperformed national trends in output and labor conditions. These key metrics influenced the revised forecast:
- While net job creation in the first half of the year stalled, aggregate income generation, reflected in personal and corporate income tax collections, has remained resilient, but it is a reflection of persistent, elevated inflation.
- The impact of House Resolution 1 (H.R. 1), affected by tariffs and the federal government shutdown, won’t be known for at least another 12-18 months.
- A large fraction of tax liability is concentrated among relatively few taxpayers, and Corporate Income Tax has shown significant historical volatility.
The General Fund revenue forecast for 2025-27 increased by $309.5 million, of which $266.9 million will come from Corporate Income Tax.
Tidings Data Snapshot
Oregon 2025-27 Forecast Change By Major Tax SourceSource: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis – 2025-27 forecast highlights as reported by state and partner summariesDailyTidings.com
Personal Income Tax collections increased by $48.0 million, while all other revenues declined by $5.8 million. OEA projects a negative $63.1 million as of June 30, 2027.
Source: Oregon 2025-27 General Fund forecast change by source
Dailytidings.com
While the OEA noted the broadly decelerated pace of growth in subsequent years as monetary and fiscal brakes were applied to snuff out inflation, they projected that the current slowdown is likely to continue into 2025, as inflation-adjusted economic output is again projected to grow more slowly than the prior year.
But forecasters do anticipate stable-to-faster growth in 2026 as the post-pandemic growth slowdown reaches an inflection point.
Be the first to comment.