Medford Economic Analysis Forecasts 22 Percent Job Growth and Need for 600 Acres of Land
MEDFORD, Ore. — After receiving input from several sectors, the City of Medford released a draft of its new Economic Opportunity Analysis (EOA) that reflects a significant update to its long-range economic policies, using projected steady job growth and ample land supplies for employment uses as metrics.
Medford 20-Year Economic Opportunity Analysis Drafted
The City has several strategic challenges to face to meet its development goals over the next 20 years.
Funded in part by the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development and prepared by Community Attributes Inc., the draft report is a state requirement under Oregon’s Land Use Planning Goal Nine.
It follows Ashland and Medford’s invitation for public input on future economic growth strategies. An update of Medford’s last EOA- completed in 2007, the new approach is the technical foundation for amendments to the city’s Comprehensive Plan, especially the Economic Element, goals, and implementation strategies.
The EOA Strategic Themes are:
- Establishing Downtown as an Economic Anchor
- Addressing Workforce Gaps
- Creating a Gateway using Branding Initiatives to enhance the city’s visual identity.
- Establishing a Unified Economic Vision
- Implementing Housing Affordability Strategies to meet the needs of the increasing supply of workers.
- Improving Site Readiness and moving toward the state’s 25 percent short-term supply goal.
The 20-year Economic Opportunity Analysis covers:
Medford’s Economic Role and Demographic Trends:
- The Rogue Valley’s primary employment hub, Medford, had a jobs-to-housing ratio of 1.35 in 2023- significantly higher than the state average of 1.08.
- The 51,000-strong workforce includes a significant number of commuters from surrounding communities: 63 percent of workers live outside the city.
- An estimated 88,585 people live in Medford, and the median household income reached $70,500 in 2023, slightly below the Jackson County average.
- Thirty-eight percent of households spend over 30 percent of their income on housing, with rent costs significantly higher. Over half the population rents.
Employment and Land Demand:
The EOA projects that Medford’s employment will increase by 22%- about 11,408 jobs between 2025 and 2045, bringing total employment to over 62,000 jobs by the end of the forecast period.
The most significant gains are expected in health care, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and construction. At the same time, the finance, insurance, and real estate sector is forecast to grow the fastest.
To support this growth, the city needs an estimated 604 acres of additional employment land, including 363 acres for commercial development and 261 acres for industrial uses.
Over 1,200 acres of vacant, buildable land zoned for employment is available in the city, although the report indicates that only 20 percent of the inventory meets Oregon’s benchmark for “short-term” development readiness- The state’s target is 25%
The EOA also incorporates findings from the city’s Climate Change Adaptation and Resiliency Plan and Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan, which identify wildfire, drought, and extreme heat as the highest-probability hazards.
The Land Development Committee is scheduled to meet on August 27 to review the draft report and formally propose policy amendments.