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While U.S. online spending on Black Friday hit a record US$11.8 billion- up 9.1% from last year, as many people did their Christmas shopping early, economists have noted that Oregon shoppers are being more selective. Spending in the state grew by 5.1% last year, down sharply from over 13% in 2021.
Taken together, the latest spending data shows a sharp contrast between record-breaking Black Friday sales and a broader cooling in consumer demand.
Tidings Data Snapshot
Holiday Spending: Record Black Friday, Slower Growth AheadSource: Adobe Analytics; Fitch Ratings; PwC 2025 Holiday Outlook; Circana holiday intentions surveys –DailyTidings.com
Oregon Shoppers Are Using AI & Black Friday To Do Christmas Shopping As Spending Slows
As inflation drove up the cost of almost everything this year, falling to 2.9% in 2024 after the previous optimism reflected that consumers were spending faster than prices increased after the pandemic, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis noted that the rampant spending increases slowed to 5.1% last year.
But consumers’ optimism is waning. Fitch Ratings predicts that U.S. consumer spending will “slow sharply” in 2025–2026 because of a weaker labor market, rising inflation, and trade-policy-induced price pressures.
Key holiday spending signals at a glance:
| Source | What It Says | 2025 Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Adobe Analytics | Record U.S. online Black Friday spending | $11.8B (+9.1% YoY) |
| Fitch Ratings | Consumer spending growth expected to slow | 2.8% (2024) → ~1.8% (2025 - 26) |
| Circana | Shoppers expect higher prices and plan modest growth | +3% planned holiday spend; 80%+ expect higher prices |
| PwC 2025 Holiday Outlook | Average holiday budgets are shrinking, led by Gen Z | -5% overall; Gen Z -23% |
| Source: Adobe Analytics; Fitch Ratings; Circana; PwC 2025 Holiday Outlook |
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Fitch expects consumer spending growth to average 1.8% in 2025–2026, a significant drop from 2.8% in 2024.
The Fitch Ratings analysis indicated that, in the second quarter:
- Consumer spending growth dropped to 1.4%, down from 3.7%.
- Services spending slowed, rising just 1.1%.
Similarly, a Circana annual survey of household spending plans predicts that consumers will spend just 3.2% more this season, as most expect prices to be higher due to President Trump’s trade war.
In addition, the 2025 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) “Holiday Outlook” predicts that consumers will spend 5% less on average during the upcoming holiday season compared with 2024- the first notable drop since 2020.
The generational breakdown shows that younger shoppers are doing most of the cutting, while older generations are keeping holiday spending alive.
Tidings Data Snapshot
How Each Generation Is Changing Holiday SpendingPlanned change in average holiday budget in 2025 vs. 2024 (PwC 2025 Holiday Outlook, selected generations; bar length scaled to each generation’s shift):Source: PwC 2025 Holiday Outlook & GoBankingRates/Nasdaq summary of generational spending plans –DailyTidings.com
The sharpest breaks are for Gen Z respondents (ages 17 to 28), many of whom are dealing with significant life transitions and early careers in a tough job market, usually with little to no savings.
PwC’s Gen Z respondents said they expect to reduce their holiday budgets by 23%, more than any other generation.
Despite the slower increases, Adobe Analytics, which tracks 1 trillion visits that shoppers make to online retail websites, reported that U.S. online spending on Black Friday hit a record US$11.8 billion- up 9.1% from last year.
Amid concerns about tariff-driven price hikes. AI-powered shopping tools were key to a surge in U.S. Black Friday online spending, as shoppers skipped crowded stores and turned to chatbots to compare prices and find discounts.
With Christmas around the corner, shoppers are still willing to do their annual seasonal splurge despite the tariff war, but they are more selective and increasingly using AI to find the best deals.
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