Polymarket Predicts Only 16% Chance Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Checks Happen

After President Donald Trump announced that he would give a $2,000 check to every American from the tariff revenue collected by the administration, an overwhelming majority of pundits on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, predicted the checks would not materialize in 2025.

Trump’s $2,000 Tariff Checks Predicted As Unlikely

Earlier this year, Trump announced tariffs on trading partners including China, Canada, Mexico, and the EU. On Sunday, he wrote in a social media post, “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

Claiming that America is now the “Richest, Most Respected Country In the World, With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER,” Trump said the country will soon begin paying down its enormous debt of $37 trillion.

He also said that, due to record investment in the USA, plants and factories have “gone up all over the place,” and promised that a tariff dividend of at least $2000 per person would be paid to everyone, except high-income people. He called people who are against tariffs fools.

On the question “Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025?”, Polymarket pundits were predicting only a 16% chance of this happening earlier today.

On the site, participants buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ shares depending on their prediction, much like betting on the outcome, and the odds shift in real time as other share traders bet.

In a social media post, Polymarket said there is a “90% chance no ‘tariff dividend’ is issued this year, despite rumors of a $2,000 airdrop.”

BREAKING: 90% chance no "tariff dividend" is issued this year, despite rumors of a $2,000 airdrop.https://t.co/u7xmp6qzIc

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 9, 2025