Oregon’s Record Layoffs Deepen Fears That Trump’s Tariffs Could Push the State Into a Full Economic Downturn

After Oregon’s unemployment rate rose to 5.2% at the end of last year, predictions suggest layoffs will affect the state’s economy.

Oregon Layoffs Affect The State’s Whole Economy

At the end of last year, the Oregon Employment Department reported that the state’s unemployment rate hit 5.2%, putting Oregon in 47^th place nationally, the highest level since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Mass layoffs by big employers of almost 9,000 in 2025, along with the number of unemployed workers reflected in the latest data, are contributing to a declining economy.

State data shows that the U.S. unemployment rate was 4.4% in September. In Oregon, 117,482 people were unemployed, and manufacturing has shed 9,600 jobs since September 2024. At 5.2%, Oregon’s unemployment rate is behind only Nevada’s 5.3% and California’s 5.6%.

Oregon’s Rapid Response WARN listings show notice-by-notice layoff counts, including 669 at Intel, a large Oregon employer at its Hillsboro R&D facility, and 109 in Medford from Solgen Power, LLC dba Purelight Power, in 2025. Multnomah County lost nearly 20,000 jobs since June of 2023 and is down about 40,000 jobs from its pre-pandemic peak.

These are the recent WARN filings behind several of the biggest layoff counts mentioned in state tracking:

In addition, fewer Oregonians are in the state’s labor force as more people are moving to Oregon than to any other state.

The state’s economy is particularly vulnerable to the higher-than-average unemployment rate for several reasons, including its reliance on manufacturing jobs, especially in semiconductors.

Chipmaker Intel eliminated more than 6,000 jobs in Oregon in 2025, including over 3,000 layoffs in Washington County. But food processors, forest products companies, paper manufacturers, and transportation equipment companies have also cut significant numbers of jobs.

Business leaders suggest that the shift toward remote work and reputational damage caused by 2020’s downtown riots, combined with record levels of homelessness and drug overdoses, have contributed to the unemployment levels, and this may lead to a potential downturn in the economy.

The shrunken labor market affects workers as well as the state budget, which loses tax revenue from the pay the workers would have earned. Oregon does not have a statewide general sales tax on most goods and services, and personal taxes will negatively affect the state’s budget.

And there is a knock-on effect. Job losses are seen as a confidence measure for investors and developers, for example. Fewer developers will have the appetite to build houses, despite the current housing shortfall, as unemployed people struggle to pay rent. This is exacerbated by Oregon’s homeless people, who simply can’t afford rent.

Oregon Economy Vulnerable To Trump’s Tariffs

President Trump’s tariff war has been ongoing since he took office almost a year ago. Retaliatory measures and higher costs, aside from their direct effect on prices, have also accelerated job losses in Oregon’s export-heavy manufacturing and agricultural sectors.

As Trump increased tariffs on U.S. imports, some trade partners announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports, affecting producers and suppliers- not just imported items. And tariff actions are, for the most part, cumulative. With each new tariff hike, the percentage is added onto an already increased existing tariff.

Economists have warned of further slowdowns this year.