Oregon Needs Nearly 500,000 New Homes as Housing Shortage Reaches Crisis Levels, New Report Says

The recently published  2026 Oregon Housing Needs Analysis indicates that Oregon needs to build nearly 500K new housing units over the next 20 years to catch up the existing backlog and provide for future housing needs in the state.

Oregon Housing Needs Analysis

To meet housing needs for Oregonians statewide, outlined by House Bill 2001, and as more people are moving to the state that anywhere else, exacerbating the existing housing shortage, the OHNA identified housing units needed now to house the existing population (Current Need) and units needed in the future to accommodate household growth (Future Need) in Oregon, suggesting that  29,359 housing units need to be built every year over the next 20 years.

The 20-year blueprint tackles the state’s housing shortage, sets specific targets for regions, cities, and income levels, and fundamentally changes local planning.

The current need includes housing underproduction and units for people experiencing homelessness.

In contrast, the future need includes units for expected population growth and accounts for housing units that will be lost to second and vacation homes, as well as units to accommodate expected demographic change.

This shows what the state counts as the main drivers of additional units needed, split by income band.

The analysis uses a baseline headship rate from the 2000 Decennial Census that has the most recent statistically reliable estimate of a housing market and applied a 5% target vacancy rate (the 75th percentile of the national vacancy rate between 1980 and 2000) to estimate the total number of housing units a region should have to accommodate current need and have a healthy level of vacancy.

Uninhabitable units, second homes, and vacation homes were excluded from the estimate of the current housing stock to produce a more accurate reflection of housing supply.

The analysis took into account factors such as outdoor recreation- and tourist-heavy communities, second- and vacation-home demographics, and demographics.

For example, Oregon is aging, and seniors typically have smaller household sizes. Population forecasts expect a larger share of the population to be 65 and older. As a result, more housing units will be needed to accommodate Oregon’s future older population.

Targets were set for housing production, prioritizing the current need over 10 years and spreading the future need over 20 years to calculate the annual production target as follows:

The analysis takes account of current and future needs, accounting for homelessness, demographic change, and vacation homes, with precision. It allocates needs down to the city level, providing a clear, accountable roadmap. The Success now depends on local implementation.