Oregon’s Booming Export Market Braces for a Grim Future Under Trump’s Tariff Overhaul

Oregon is among only 11 states nationwide that operate with a trade surplus. However, the Trump administration’s introduction of radical tariff hikes, followed by shifts in trade policy, is creating rising uncertainties.

Oregon’s Strategic Position on the Pacific Rim is Increasingly at Risk

Its strategic position on the Pacific Rim is a competitive advantage. Still, it is increasingly at risk despite its multi-modal transportation infrastructure offering efficient access to global markets by air, sea, rail, and road.

This uncertain political landscape and President Donald Trump’s changing stance on tariffs as European and Asian markets retaliate, is slowing trade – an impact already ricocheting throughout Oregon’s $7.2 billion export industries.

According to a 2025 trade report by the Portland Metro Chamber, as retaliatory measures impact the U.S., barriers to trade escalate, slowing activity, and resulting in losses.

One in Eight Oregonians Work in the Export Market

Roughly one in eight people in Oregon are employed in sectors connected to the export trade—such as shipping, logistics, storage, and manufacturing aimed at foreign markets, and by 2022 had shares in 569 large businesses, and 4,385 in medium and small businesses.

One notable trend is that Oregonians employed in international trade-related private sector jobs tend to earn more annually than those working in industries that are not tied to global commerce.

In 2023, employees in Oregon’s top trade-driven industries took home paychecks about 12% higher than the state’s average wage, underscoring the economic value of global commerce.

Small and mid-sized businesses are the backbone of Oregon’s export economy. Companies with 500 or fewer workers make up 88% of all exporters in the state, contributing a combined $7.12 billion in export value.

Oregon has long held a rare spot on the national map as one of just 11 states that consistently exports more than it brings in—a trade surplus that has helped support jobs and boost wages across the state, the report notes.

That economic strength has largely been driven by the flow of high-value goods tied closely to global supply chains. However, recent trade data is beginning to show signs of strain, raising questions about the stability of that advantage.

Tariff Hikes Could Hurt the Semiconductor, Transport, Agriculture, and Timber Industries

Rising tariffs could hit some of Oregon’s most trade-dependent sectors—including semiconductors, transportation equipment, agriculture, and timber—industries that rely heavily on exports to stay competitive.

The report points out that Oregon’s computer and electronics sector is deeply embedded in a global supply chain, where uninterrupted trade is essential. The state’s advanced manufacturing footprint is also clear in the back-and-forth movement of transportation equipment, both in exports and imports.

At the same time, traditional industries like farming and logging, which still make up a significant share of the state’s exports, face risks—from retaliatory tariffs to weakening demand in overseas markets.

Portland Metro Chambers points to Mexico where Oregon’s trade relationship has become significant. Since 2020, demand for electronics, machinery, and agricultural products has escalated trade between Oregon and Mexico.

According to the report, high-tech manufacturing is leading the way with Oregon exporting nearly $13 billion in computer and electronic products last year.

“But Oregon’s export story doesn’t end with semiconductors and circuit boards,” says the report. Oregon’s export economy is also impressively diverse, drawing from urban manufacturing hubs and rural production areas.

Data reveals that the state exported $6.2 billion in machinery, $4.3 billion in transportation equipment, $3.7 billion in chemicals, and $1.8 billion in agricultural products.

The inclusion of services paints an even rosier picture, injecting an additional $6.5 billion in export value in 2022. These included licensing and royalty fees, professional, business, and travel-related services.

Some of the state’s export destinations by value and volume are Japan – 30,9% volume and 3.83% value; Rest of the World – 20.67% value and 16.73% volume; Mexico – 18,39% value and 0.39% volume; China – 17.2% value and 13.62 volume; and South Korea – 14.61% volume and 3.89% value.

The value and volume of these exports tell different stories depending on the destination. For instance, Mexico is a top market by value but not by volume – indicating Oregon sends high-value, lightweight goods like auto parts there.

Meanwhile, Japan buys a greater share of Oregon’s exports by volume, though not by dollar value, reflecting shipments of bulk items like hay, fruit, wheat, and lumber.

Overview

These patterns highlight Oregon’s strengths in high-tech manufacturing and natural resource industries. They also underscore the state’s deepening ties to the global marketplace.

While China, Canada, and Japan were Oregon’s leading export destinations in 2018, recent years have seen a shift, with Mexico, China, and Malaysia rising to the top by 2024.

However, ongoing trade tensions and new tariffs are creating uncertainty, threatening the progress Oregon has made in expanding its global trade footprint.